Bitcoin price will reach $170,000 in 2025 – mathematical model predicts cryptoforbs

The price of Bitcoin is trading at $27,100 at the time of writing, which represents a 60% decline from its all-time high of $69,000 in 2021. As anticipation grows for the next bull market, questions are being raised regarding the possible future prices of Bitcoin.

While most predictions are speculative, one analyst has created a model that leverages historical data to predict potential peaks and troughs in Bitcoin’s price over time.

Bitcoin price in previous sessions

Bitcoin's prices changes since 2011. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Since its inception, Bitcoin has shown remarkable growth, greatly rewarding early long-term investors. This price growth can be seen in measuring Bitcoin prices from lows to highs and between the highs of successive bull markets.

In 2011, the peak was $33, followed by a peak of $1,240 in 2013, reflecting a 3,800% increase between peaks. Subsequent peaks in 2017 and 2021 were $20,000 and $69,000, representing increases of 1,600% and 350%, respectively. Similar levels of increase are also observed when examining the lows of the different cycles.

It is worth noting that the relative growth between cycles has diminished, perhaps due to the increase in the market value of Bitcoin, which requires more capital to influence its price. This decreasing growth corresponds to the mathematical pattern known as Logarithmic regression.

Logarithmic regression

An analyst created various logarithmic curves on a Bitcoin chart to predict potential peaks and troughs for Bitcoin, using time as the only input. Such models can help investors by offering a straightforward way to see potential market trends and make proactive plans in the unpredictable world of cryptocurrencies.

Chart of Bitcoin's price in a channel of logistic regression curves. Source: @BawdyAnarchist_ on X

Bitcoin peaks and troughs typically occur every four years, making it possible to predict potential Bitcoin prices in the coming cycles based on a logit regression model.

Bitcoin price forecast

• 2025-2026: Bitcoin’s price could peak in the third or fourth quarter of 2025 between $190,000 and $200,000, before bottoming out at $70,000 the following year.
• 2029-2030: Bitcoin price could top out at $420,000 to $440,000 and bottom the following year at around $230,000.
• 2033-2034: Bitcoin price may peak between $750,000 – $800,000 and reach around $700,000 the following year.

Final thoughts

While models like these provide insightful predictions of potential future prices for Bitcoin, it is important to acknowledge their limitations and the need for periodic updates with new data points. Many external factors, including but not limited to, regulatory changes, technological advances and macroeconomic conditions, can significantly affect the accuracy of the model.

Moreover, the unprecedented nature of Bitcoin’s trajectory, which has never seen a recessionary environment, implies a potential susceptibility to larger crashes than models might predict. Forecasts should be considered with caution in conjunction with broader market analysis and trends as with any financial model.